Chapter 247：

In this way, it seems that you only need to talk to Chen Yi, and you don't need to change a researcher to let Chen Yi leave. To be honest, Li Shan likes Chen Yi very much. Li Shan feels that Chen Yi looks very much like the self he used to be, and he is better at thinking and summarizing than he was back then.

If this really caused Chen Yijuan to leave, and then change to a researcher, Li Shan would still be a little bit reluctant.

After thinking of this, Li Shan breathed a sigh of relief, and continued to teach Chen Yi an investment class about value investment and technical analysis. Li Shandao: "This technical analysis is problematic, although no one can prove it is. Absolutely wrong, but we can analyze and demonstrate logically. Yi, do you know how these so-called technical analysis come from?"

Chen Yidao: "Know some. To put it simply, there is a group of people who get up early and summarize the trend and changes of stock prices by statistical methods, and then use the summarized results to predict and judge the future stock price trend."

Li Shan nodded and said, "Yes, that's it. Now I will tell you why I say technical analysis is problematic."

Chen Yi nodded and listened carefully to Li Shan's words.

Li Shan said: "You just said that this technical analysis is a group of people who summarize the trend and changes of stock prices in a statistical way, and then use the summarized results to predict and judge the future stock price trend. Then they base it on The stock price situation for a period of time is used as a sample for the research and development of technical indicators, then the technical indicators developed must be in line with the period they choose, but they may not be in the future period, because the future period and the period they choose The situation is not necessarily the same.

For example, the macroeconomic situation may have changed, the state may have introduced some new policies, or the structure of market participants may have changed. Originally, ordinary retail investors may participate, but now they may be mainly professional. For professional institutional investors in China, the knowledge, ability, rationality, and amount of funds are different. This will cause the two time intervals to be different. Then do you think it is reasonable to apply the same indicator?

It's like two questions, one math question, and one English question. Do you think it is easy to use the method of solving math problems to solve English problems? Everything has prerequisites, but many prerequisites in daily life will be ignored by everyone because of habits or various reasons, but even if they are ignored, the objective reality that these conditions still exist cannot be denied. When considering problems, you should also Take these conditions into consideration that are usually ignored by us.

It’s like we say that the speed of a person’s 100 meters is usually within the range of how many or how much, but this is in the case of the earth’s gravity, if it is on the moon, this data is definitely not the data. Everyone knows these things, but when you When only talking about a person's 100-meter speed, everyone will assume that you are on the earth. But if an alien arrives at this time, he doesn't know the prerequisite, what will he think when he hears the result?

The same is true for technical analysis. We don’t know every specific condition and environmental factor under which every technical indicator is born, or what kind of market it is applicable to. We can only say that it is in a certain type of specific market environment. Applicable, nothing more.

So this is what I said there is a problem with technical analysis, and why you feel that the logic is not clear and dare not use it, because you don't know many prerequisites. "

Chen Yi thought carefully about every sentence Li Shan had said, and found that it seemed to be the case.

Li Shan is right. Li Shan's expression is okay in terms of logic and reason. It seems that technical analysis is really problematic.

But after thinking about it, Chen Yi still felt that what Li Shan said was not quite right, so he asked: "Then why are so many people admiring technical analysis? It is impossible for everyone to be confused and lose sight of the truth. Bar."

Li Shan smiled upon hearing this and said, "The truth is always in the hands of a few people. Have you noticed what kind of people are most of those people? They are all retail investors, right? Why do they ask that they respect technical analysis so much? Everyone is lazy. I just told you about value investing. You also wrote a company research report briefly. You should know how long it takes to study a company and how much cost? We? As a professional engaged in securities investment, it does not matter, because this is our job.

But have you ever wondered whether those retail investors have this time? They need to go to work, school, have their own work, life, and family. Some people even have to take care of their children. They have to wash and cook after get off work at night to take care of their children. Where do they have so much time to study a listed company? If you tell them that there is a way that doesn't take a lot of time, what do you think most people will do? "

Li Shan left a question without telling the whole story, and let Chen Yi think about it for himself. Chen Yi is not a fool either, he naturally wants to understand the answer to Li Shan's question.

Chen Yi took over Li Shan’s words: “Indeed, under such a situation, some people will definitely learn technical analysis, follow the way of technical analysis, and buy and sell stocks. Nor are these technical analysis indicators. It is fabricated out of thin air and is also calculated through data models and mathematical statistics. Every technical indicator is accurate in a certain period of time, and it is very accurate. No one can deny this.

This has also caused many big coffees to like to do afterthoughts. Originally, the professionalism of retail investors was poor, and it was shaken by the problem of time. In addition, these so-called masters contributed to the flames, and the constant hype caused a large number of retail investors to go forward and succeed. Flock into the army of technical analysis.

These retail investors account for a large and very large proportion in the market, at least in today's market, or there will be no saying that "the stock market has lost seven losses, two equalized and one profited." "

Li Shan was very happy when he heard that, he almost clapped his hands and applauded. He didn't expect that Chen Yi could think so thoroughly after just a few words, which made him very happy. In his opinion, Chen Yi already understood it. If you understand it, you won't be entangled anymore. This is a good thing.

Li Shan said: "It's fine if you understand, are there any other questions?"

Chen Yi shook his head and said, "No problem, thank you Brother Li, I have thought about it for a long time and I haven't come up with a result. Thanks to Brother Li, thank you Brother Li for letting me understand today many things that I didn't want to understand before and didn't know before. For the sake of reason, thank you, Brother Li. I will go back and think about it later, digest it."