Chapter 772

Zhou Hao's remarks made people on the scene, especially those experts and scholars present, pale. Naturally, Dong te Shou and others were surprised by Zhou Hao's words. At the same time, they had to ponder over the advantages and disadvantages of Hong Kong's current linked exchange rate system.

And those experts and scholars are the academic leaders in this field. What Zhou haogang just said is also the conclusion of their research. However, it took them a long time to come up with that. However, Zhou Hao was able to sum up their painstaking theoretical crystallization by his own efforts, which had to surprise them.

Naturally, those present would not know that Zhou Hao was tired of hearing about the advantages and disadvantages of the "linked exchange rate system" in his previous life. However, it was the experience summed up by many experts after the financial crisis. Although it was easy for Zhou Hao to listen, it was the basis of the economists' long-term research, the financial crisis in Hong Kong and the previous Mexican currency crisis On the basis of this, the experience is finally studied.

"The linked exchange rate system is difficult to play its role in the financial crisis, which can be easily exploited by speculators." "In the late October of last year, Soros attacked the Hong Kong stock market, and now they continue to sell Hong Kong dollar. For example, they sell a lot of Hong Kong dollar futures in the market, and the forward exchange rate risk premium of Hong Kong dollar will immediately rise sharply, thus pushing up the interbank offered rate in the banking system. In order to defeat these speculators, the HKMA tightened the money supply. At that time, the interbank offered rate once soared to 300%

The director of the HKMA, Mr Joseph Yam, was also present. Hearing Zhou Hao's mention of the matter, he immediately straightened up his back and could not help but feel nervous.

"Although such high interest rates have increased the costs of speculators in foreign exchange, they will also have a heavy impact on the stock market. The market is full of selling, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4000 points, followed by 1400 points on October 28. Although the sodos group did not make any profit in foreign exchange speculation, they made a lot of profits in the stock market." Zhou Hao shook his head and said, "that's why I just said that blindly raising the interbank lending rate is a temporary cure rather than a permanent cure."

After listening to Zhou Hao's words, chief executive Dong and the experts all agreed to look at Ren Zhikang. Now they all know that this simple method of raising the lending rate is really killing a thousand enemies and losing eight hundred, and even will be used by others. The foreign media call Hong Kong the "super cash machine" of speculators, largely because of this rigid measure.

Ren Zhikang's face was flushed, but he couldn't think of anything to refute Zhou Hao's views. Especially now that the facts are in front of us, his "any move" not only seriously damaged the Hong Kong stock market, but also encouraged the arrogance of Soros and others.

Zhou Hao's voice sounded again: "in fact, you should not blame Mr. Ren too much. In the face of Soros' attack, his reaction has been quick. Can't you see that the governments of Thailand and Malaysia have been beaten to death by those guys. Fortunately, we have a director general in Hong Kong who has stuck to the city gate."

At this moment, Zhou Hao's words really sound like the sounds of heaven in Ren Zhikang. He was also very grateful to Zhou Hao in his heart. All of them wanted to kowtow to him. He had just fallen into such an embarrassing and embarrassing situation. Zhou Hao helped him.

And Zhou Hao's "understanding" of Ren Zhikang is even more subtle in Qin Bai's eyes, because it is clearly the profound way to resist the emperor. One tight and one loose handle is appropriate, but not warm and not hot. When he falls down, he is lifted up again, so that his subordinates will unconsciously die for him. Therefore, they are very sensitive to their leaders.

Qin Bai and Qin Bai couldn't help but think of some rumors from the central government. The chairman and the premier handed over the burden of Hong Kong to Zhou Hao, and Zhao jiadui fully supported Zhou Hao. Now that Zhou Hao shows such "imperial mentality", they can't help but guess that Zhou Hao is not really the successor of the next generation cultivated by him?

However, Zhou Hao did not know that his efforts to smooth out the "local forces" on the Hong Kong side for the sake of the overall situation would make Qin Donghai and Bai Zhengnan have such associations. Otherwise, he would really sigh at the imagination of those senior officials.

Focusing on the financial war in Hong Kong, Zhou Hao did not notice Qin Bai's careful thinking. He continued to say to the audience, "do you know what Julian Robertson is most concerned about in Hong Kong?"

People shook their heads, Zhou Hao said: "one is the number of visitors to Hong Kong, the other is the overdraft rate of Hong Kong investors."

At this time, another expert was puzzled: "we can understand the overdraft rate of investors, because the overdraft rate of investors can show the excitement of the stock market. When the overdraft rate reaches an extraordinary level, the turbulence of the stock market may not be far away. Therefore, the overdraft ratio can be regarded as a reverse indicator. But what's the relationship between the number of visitors and these? "

"Perhaps most people think that the number of visitors to Hong Kong is only one of the more than ten comprehensive indicators needed to track Hong Kong's economy and market. But in the eyes of Julian Robertson or Tiger Fund, the number of visitors has a huge impact on Hong Kong's economy and is an important indicator of their actions against Hong Kong.

First of all, visitors to Hong Kong are directly related to Hong Kong's foreign exchange income, which is the raw material for Hong Kong's currency issuance. According to my personal statistics, the tourism industry accounts for more than 40% of Hong Kong's service exports and plays an extremely important role in supporting the stability of the linked exchange rate system.In addition, the consumption of inbound tourists contributes a lot to Hong Kong's GDP. On the surface, according to the statistics of the Hong Kong Tourism Association, the contribution of inbound tourists' consumption to GDP is only 6%. However, if the indirect multiplier effect on the economy is taken into account, I estimate that the contribution rate to GDP will not be less than 12.5%.

In addition, inbound tourists are still a leading indicator of the economy. Through the number of visitors, we can basically infer the trend of retail consumption, another important indicator of economic activity. "

After Zhou Hao's explanation, people suddenly realized that Zeng Yingquan also held his chin and pondered: "the Tiger Fund really deserves its reputation. Seeing what others can't see, it takes this as a breakthrough and gives the enemy a fatal blow."

"According to me, Zhou Hao is more powerful than Tiger Fund or Julian Robertson." Ren Zhikang said with a smile: "it is difficult to play tricks, but it is even more difficult to uncover them."

Dong te nodded and said with a smile: "no wonder the chairman and the premier asked us to ask Zhou Hao if we met with difficulties. The leaders really saw it right."

Compared with these, those experts are more concerned about academic things. After Zhou Hao showed his "strength", they had already cast aside all the contempt, and immediately surrounded and asked in a hurry: "Mr. Zhou, since the linked exchange rate system has such obvious and dangerous disadvantages, how can we improve it? Is it really necessary to abandon the current linked exchange rate system and switch to other exchange rate systems? "

Hearing that these experts in their 50s and 60s even called "teachers", Zhou Hao was really in tears and laughter. However, the issue they raised was indeed a crucial economic issue for Hong Kong, so he patiently said: "in fact, no exchange rate system can be suitable for any economic system at any time, because no matter what kind of exchange rate system is implemented The most important thing is that it must be carried out in line with the overall macroeconomic policy.

Since its implementation in 1983, the linked exchange rate system has been effective in Hong Kong and I believe it will continue to play the same role in the future.

As for your proposal to switch to other exchange rate systems, I think you must have studied them deeply. In fact, other exchange rate systems are not the best choice for Hong Kong. I personally think that the linked exchange rate system is the most suitable for Hong Kong before there is a substantial development of the current economic system. "

"But Mr. Zhou, didn't you say that the linked exchange rate system has obvious shortcomings?" An expert said: "when there is another financial storm, Hong Kong will suffer huge losses due to the rigidity of the exchange rate system?"

Zhou Hao laughed and shook his head: "although we can't use other exchange rate systems, we can improve the linked exchange rate system."

Then, all the people present, including chief executive Dong, Zeng Yingquan and Qin Bai, the two central bank governors, all looked at Zhou Hao with a twinkle eye and only heard Zhou Hao say: "we can strengthen the currency board mechanism, which is conducive to creating a lower interest rate environment. The core content of this measure is to replace the original liquidity adjustment mechanism with the discount window Banks can use exchange fund bills and notes to borrow overnight funds from the HKMA, which can virtually increase the account balance of the banking system by several times or even dozens of times in disguise, thus increasing the liquidity of banks.

The announcement of the basic interest rate by the HKMA before the start of each day is also instructive to the market. The basic interest rate will become the upper limit of overnight interest rate. If the overnight interest rate is higher than the basic rate, banks will not need to borrow through interbank in the market, but only need to borrow the required overnight funds through the discount window with the exchange fund bills on hand. In this way, the pressure of rising interest rates can be alleviated. At the same time, the government should also implement some measures to tighten the supervision of securities and futures, such as making short sellers unable to sell under the market price of stocks, and strengthening the investigation and monitoring of illegal short selling, so as to increase the difficulty of short selling. "

These measures are all the improvements made by the Hong Kong government to the linked exchange rate through the experience summed up after the financial war in the previous life, and they are all used by Zhou Hao.

www.novelhall.com , the fastest update of the webnovel!