Chapter 759

When the loan of more than 200 billion kyat came into effect.

The news was immediately returned to the country.

Early in the morning,

Beijing.

Central bank.

International division.

Yuan Yi, the person in charge, organized a seminar.

The main members of the Department and some experts in economics and currency of the Institute were invited.

A large loan was granted to Myanmar.

Post loan risk control is a must.

But now the situation is a little complicated. At present, there is no problem in Myanmar's economic development, but the currency problem suddenly emerges, which makes the leaders of a central bank nod.

A country.

The situation of the two currencies is nothing unusual in China.

But it's like Burma now.

Among them, as a minority currency, the Asian dollar even plays a more and more important role in the main currency circulation area, and even directly participates in economic activities, which makes them a little confused.

Just like the day when Hong Kong dollar suddenly circulates in China and keeps its value in settlement, it is so inconceivable.

This has never been the case.

There is no precedent at all.

"At the end of last year, we lent 160 billion yuan to Myanmar to help it develop its economy, improve its people's livelihood and carry out large-scale infrastructure construction. These money were successively created by the Central Bank of Myanmar in accordance with the international exchange rate.

As a result of the huge inflow of kyat into the market and the over issuance of kyat government, the devaluation of kyat's domestic currency began, which is within our expectation, among which the value of Asian dollar has remained stable, which is also within our expectation.

However, what we didn't expect is that in the process of Myanmar dollar this time, the Asian dollar has become a safe haven pool of funds in Myanmar, because there is no way for Myanmar to make the idea of Myanmar dollar reserve.

Later, they found that the Asian dollar could be freely convertible, so they took the Asian dollar as a hedge currency similar to the U.S. dollar, and carried out a large number of exchanges, making the Myanmar dollar participate in a large number of domestic economic and savings activities.

This is not the most important thing. General commercial banks have deposit reserves for loans, and some of them must be turned over to the central bank to guarantee the normal people's deposit and withdrawal, as well as the safety of residents and enterprises' deposits, and control the total amount of domestic currency flow.

However, the Bank of Myanmar Asia does not have this restriction. All the income of kyat, they can lend out, which leads to the market circulation of kyat completely exceeding the original expectation, and the depreciation expectation of kyat will be lengthened and deepened.

This is not only a domestic affair in Myanmar, but also has affected our trade import and export with China, making many domestic enterprises join in this kind of behavior to ensure their own capital security.

The purpose of this meeting is to gather ideas and discuss the impact of this meeting on China's economy and trade with Myanmar, and even the future economic development of Myanmar, which is a matter of great importance. "

First of all, Yuan Yi explained the current situation in an all-round way.

All the experts here look down at the documents in their hands. The more they look at them, the more frightened they are.

I feel like I'm crazy.

How to allow such a thing to happen.

"Isn't there a limit on the exchange of kyat and kyat before? When was this released? " An expert who participated in the loan to Myanmar went through all the documents in his hand, but could not find the answer to this question.

"It's not certain at this time. The Central Bank of Myanmar has not released relevant information, and we have no work report of Myanmar government. We only know that there was a limit before, but when the limit is reached, it seems that the limit suddenly does not exist.

Our estimate is that all major interest groups in Myanmar have worked together to lift the limit so as to facilitate their asset preservation. It is important to know that the sum of kyat in their hands is huge, and the banks in Myanmar will suffer serious losses.

The reason is also very easy to find. First, the Bank of Myanmar and Asia holds half of the RMB payment right, and the economic activities in the special economic zone of Myanmar and Asia and other places in Myanmar are increasing, with many possibilities. "

Yuan Yi's answer.

It's the same as I didn't say.

The experts all looked at him speechlessly.

Yuan Yi is still calmly drinking tea and rolling his eyes. What do you ask me to do?

The expert thought for a while and asked, "now the problem is that, without the restriction of deposit reserve, there is a strong demand for preservation of value in Myanmar society, which leads to a huge amount of kyat owned by the Bank of Myanmar, and the Bank of Myanmar is not willing to suffer the loss of devaluation and make a lot of investment, which leads to the total out of control of domestic liquidity of kyat?"

"Yes." Yuan Yi nods.

"In this way, the inflation rate in Myanmar will be too high to be frightening. Langcai and his colleagues will not fail to see that." The expert doubts.

Yuan Yi replied: "of course, he can see it, but now we think that Lang CAI has a bigger plan, and they have also tasted the benefits of economic stimulus. Now we give so much money, and it's gone.

Langcai may want to make efforts again to complete the one-time construction of Myanmar pavilion with the help of external forces. However, it's all speculation. It's not clear how to do it. However, we can see some clues from the excessive budget this time. "

Another expert said: "this may not be what Lang Tsai meant. It may be the result of the joint efforts of all major interest groups in Myanmar. Lang Tsai also had to compromise and agree to the excessive budget plan."

"I also agree with this view. It's probably the result of the final compromise of Lang Cai who didn't want to print money. He is afraid that the wind will not stop. After all, the power of interest groups is too strong." Another said.

"I don't agree with you. I don't want to elaborate on his prestige in Myanmar. Even if he compromises, he won't compromise completely. Have you noticed that the loan limit this time is larger than the over budget limit? Is this a decision made by compromise Lang Cai?" Liu Jin said in silence.

It's the same with everyone.

Compromise is OK.

However, langcai's prestige is not so low that it needs to be completely and unconditionally compromised, which also helps.

If not for compromise.

So if it's not the initiative, it has other purposes.

"Academician Liu, what do you think?" Asked Yuan Yi. Liu Jin is academician Liu.

Liu Jin thought for a moment and said, "I don't agree with the statement that Lang Cai wants to be built in place at one time. Lang Cai is not like that. It's determined by his personality. I think he has other purposes."

"What purpose?" Yuan Yi asked knowingly.

"Abolish Yayuan." Liu Jin said lightly.

As soon as this words, the conference room fell into silence, abandoned the Asian yuan, logically.. It seems to make sense.

Liu Jin went on to explain: "now it's basically impossible for Lang CAI to abolish the Asian yuan by administrative order, zero will not agree, and the Myanmar Asia Special Economic Zone will not agree, but their owners have an important strategic position, and their strength is not weak, so Lang CAI can't solve the Asian yuan militarily.

Then he only through the form of economy and currency, economically, the Myanmar Asia Special Economic Zone has completed the preliminary industrialization, borders on the three countries, the road is smooth, and the economy is not restricted by langcai.

So in the end, it can only fall to money.

In this period of time, the exchange limit disappeared, and the current loans, as well as the next possible more loans, are all a situation of langcai. It is self-evident that langcai has not only solved the development fund, but also solved the problem of an opponent. Langcai has the first chance and all the favorable conditions, and is still the orthodox of Myanmar. He will definitely be the last winner. Of course, if he is in the position of Without accident. "

"What accident?" Asked Yuan Yi.

"That's more. Now there are two years to go before Lang Tsai takes office. Two years later, it's not certain how the new president will treat ya yuan. The longer the time is, the more variable it will be. However, it's certain that Ya Yuan will be included in the Myanmar yuan system." Liu Jin shook his head.

Liu Jin's eyes flashed a little doubt when he said this, because Yayuan doesn't look like a lord waiting to die, nor is it zero, but he really can't think of any hope that Yayuan can win.

Yuan Yi is speechless.

He added a nonsense.

The rest of today's agenda continues.

"Now it can be concluded that the construction and development of Myanmar island will last for quite a long time. Our Chinese company has won more and more projects. In addition to the RMB disbursement project, in other additional projects, all parties now get Myanmar dollar for the first time to convert it into Asian dollar.

Due to the restriction of the Central Bank of Myanmar, the money can not be converted into US dollars in large amount. If we convert it into RMB, our exchange rate will lose a lot. Therefore, the money is still in the Bank of Myanmar and Asia and has not been transferred back to China.

The Bank of Myanmar Asia is not the Central Bank of Myanmar. Although they have a lot of US dollars and other foreign currencies, they are not obliged to exchange foreign currencies for our enterprises. So last week, the Bank of Myanmar Asia proposed to our bank a large-scale opening of the free exchange of Asian yuan and RMB.

In order to solve this part of China's enterprises to earn money retention, unable to return to the problem. In this way, we will officially regard the Asian dollar as a kind of foreign exchange reserve. What are your opinions and suggestions on this issue? "