v3 Chapter 1139： What if the Fed raises interest rates again?

After half an hour.

Xia Yu found that everyone had finished reading, almost all of them were thinking.

He smiled, breaking the quiet atmosphere.

"Well, everyone has finished watching."

"What do you think?"

After Xia Yu finished speaking, he glanced back and forth on everyone's faces.

Seeing no one said anything, Xia Yu directly called.

This time, instead of ordering the most outstanding Liu Xiao, he gave Song Yang the opportunity.

"Song Yang, tell me first."

Song Yang was stunned, then nodded, and then he muttered for a moment and said: "Boss, after reading these materials, two words came to my mind."

"Huge pit, opportunity!"

"Mexico, Brazil and other five countries, each country's year-end debt service rate exceeded the international warning line five times, Argentina's highest, nearly eight times!"

"The foreign exchange of these countries is basically in a dry state, and the foreign exchange they will obtain from commercial exports in the next five or six years will be enough for the total debt to be repaid this year."

"Especially in August, Mexico has a debt of more than ten billion dollars that needs to be repaid when it is due."

"Except for banks in Europe and the United States who continue to lend large sums of money and allow Mexico to convert debt, otherwise I really can't think of where Mexico can take money to repay debt."

"A peek into the panoply, the sovereign debt of Latin America and other countries has huge hidden dangers of crisis."

"These countries have an outstanding debt of more than US$300 billion, which is equivalent to the annual GDP of Canada, the seventh largest in the world. If there is a crisis, it will affect all major banks in Europe and the United States. The global financial market and capital market will Get shocked."

"If we mobilize funds and hide in the stock market, foreign exchange market and other markets, we will definitely make a lot of money!"

Xia Yu smiled and nodded, but did not comment. Instead, he looked at other people and asked: "What about you? What do you think?"

Everyone looked at each other.

Tang Yong pushed his glasses and said, "Boss, let me talk about my personal opinion."

"I have been studying the US economic situation and the Fed's policy direction for the past six months."

"In 1979, Paul Volcker took office as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the second oil crisis that broke out has exacerbated the problem of stagflation in the US economy. For the sake of American economic stability, Paul Volcker used tough measures to suppress the increase in inflation. In June of last year, Paul Volcker raised the federal funds rate from an average of 11.2% in 1979 to a record high of 19%, and the loan interest rate also increased to 2%. Eleven five."

"Since this year, the US federal funds rate has also remained near the highest level in history."

"The Fed's tight monetary policy has been unprecedented since 1979, and this has caused a large amount of funds to flow out of Latin America."

"Then it is the problems of Latin America and other countries."

"On the one hand, the borrowing interest rate in Latin America and other countries is floating, and the soaring federal funds rate in the United States has made the economies of Latin America and other countries vulnerable, and debt has risen sharply. Take Mexico as an example. Part of it accounts for 30% of the annual export value."

"After the outbreak of the oil crisis, the global real economy has been greatly affected. The demand for industrial raw materials has dropped sharply, and the international prices of industrial raw materials have continued to fall. This is for Latin America, which basically relies on the sale of domestic natural resources to earn foreign exchange. It’s the deadliest for the country."

"But I think that the debt crisis in Latin America and other countries still has great uncertainties. Now the Fed’s monetary policy has been at the highest level in history for a year. Latin America and other countries are now adapting. As long as they are willing to sell their fixed assets, Or if these mines and oil fields continue to be mortgaged, they can still be converted into debt to tide over the difficulties."

"Unless the Fed challenges people's bottom line again and raises interest rates again to allow global capital to flow back to the United States."

Compared with Song Yang's analysis, Tang Yong's vision is relatively broad and relatively conservative.

However, Xia Yu did not comment, and nodded with a smile, then looked at the others.

"what about you?"

"Don't have any scruples and speak freely!"

"boss……"

...

Next, everyone expressed their opinions.

From the attitude of the boss Xia Yu, it is conceivable that there are great benefits in this, so the main theme has been set long ago, otherwise they would not be so solemnly called to a meeting to discuss.

But the main theme is the main theme, how to implement, the radical attitude or the conservative attitude, this is a difference.

Everyone tries their best to improve or challenge others' opinions, and analyze the problem as comprehensively as possible, so that the boss can make decisions more securely.

It can be said that everyone’s starting point is good.

Therefore, after listening to everyone's opinions, Xia Yu was in a pretty good mood.

Everyone here is not his echo bug, but an elite who knows how to think independently and dare to make suggestions.

Xia Yu couldn't help sighing again that Liu Xiao and others have changed a lot compared to a few years ago!

However, this is a great thing!

Xia Yu sat up straight, drank his saliva and cleared his throat. He smiled and commented: "Your analysis is very good. Everyone's opinions are well-founded and unique. I am very pleased!"

Everyone smiled knowingly upon hearing the words.

Xia Yu suddenly asked, "I ask you a question. Do you think that in the next few months, will Mexico choose to breach the contract?"

As soon as this was said everyone's expression changed.

Full default?

This is too absolute!

You must know that Mexico’s current debt is as high as 87 billion US dollars!

Although they were discussing just now, based on data and data, they only think that Mexico’s debt of more than 10 billion US dollars due in August and the remaining debt of more than 30 billion US dollars due at the end of the year may be problematic, but Nor is there no room for activity.

This is fundamentally different from the total breach of contract called by the boss Xia Yu!

"Boss, all loans in Mexico come from commercial banks in European and American countries. Even if there is a chance, these commercial banks will actively respond and will not sit back and watch Mexico's total default?"

"Short-term default, and part of the default, is enough to cause their stock prices to plummet, and it is enough to cause huge volatility in Mexico's stock and foreign exchange markets."

Xue He said suddenly, still a little unbelievable.

Xia Yu said with an inexplicable smile: "What if the Fed raises interest rates again?"

"This……"

Xue He was immediately stunned.

Tang Yong blurted out: "If the Fed raises interest rates again, it will be an irreversible trend for international capital to flow back to the United States. If large European and American banks want to continue lending abroad, it will be difficult for them to pass internally!"

"By then, this will likely be the last straw to bend Mexico!"

"Of course, there is also an uncertain factor, that is, the information only mentions that Mexico is actively borrowing globally, but it does not mention how much money Mexico has borrowed now!"

After Tang Yong finished speaking, everyone's eyes focused on Xia Yu again.

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