v3 Chapter 1013： I want Hong Kong stocks to turn into a bear market!

In the afternoon of the same day, Song Bo sent the collected information to Xia Yu. After browsing, Xia Yu gave the information to the think tank and asked them to prepare immediately, and came up with a preliminary plan during the meeting two days later. .

Two days later, when Song Bo came again, Xia Yu closed the door and held a secret meeting. The preliminary plan was approved by him.

After setting the general direction, Xia Yu was ready to let his financial company secretly do it.

Just as he was about to leave, he received a call from Liu Tianci. The slight information mentioned in the call dispelled the idea of ​​going to Jiuding Securities Company and ordered Liu Tianci to come to his office immediately.

After hanging up the phone, Xia Yu thought for a while, then called Wang Qi and asked him to come to his office, and then he fell into deep thought.

After more than twenty minutes, Liu Tianci came in quietly.

"Chairman, I'm sorry I am late."

After speaking apologetically, Liu Tianci smiled and nodded at Wang Qi who stood up.

"From Central to here, your speed is faster, sit down and talk!"

After signalling Liu Tianci to sit down, Xia Yu also walked down from the desk and sat down on the sofa.

He went straight to the subject and asked: "God, what you mentioned on the phone just now, let me repeat it in detail now."

"Wang Qi, listen carefully, this matter is extremely important."

Xia Yu told Wang Qi again.

It is rare for Wang Qi to see Chairman Xia Yu's attitude like this. He nodded his head heavily and raised 120% of his attention. His body was slightly in front of Qin, and his eyes were staring at Liu Tianci.

Liu Tianci thought for a while and said in detail: "Chairman, just this morning, the Heung Kong Bank Association held a regular meeting with all members present, mainly to discuss how to deal with a series of negative impacts brought about by the appreciation of the US dollar."

"According to market feedback, the interest rate gap between the Hong Kong dollar and the Eurodollar has reached three and a half percent, and the US dollar is still rising. The exchange rate risk has further increased. The capital of Hong Kong has already formed an outflow. The investment environment has deteriorated. If we no longer want to stop capital outflows, the amount of capital in Hong Kong will decrease and banks’ operating risks will further increase..."

"HSBC proposes to raise interest rates by about 1% in various interest rates to hedge against the impact of the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and to wipe out interest spreads as much as possible..."

Hearing Liu Tianci's constant remarks, Wang Qi's brow furrowed deeper and deeper, and his heart could not be calm.

HSBC, as a note-issuing bank, is now proposing to raise interest rates, so other banks will definitely support it, which can reduce their risks.

To raise interest rates is to raise interest rates, not only deposit rates but also loan rates.

When the interest rate increases, it means that the cost of borrowing for people increases, and the burden on those who lack funds is heavier, and their borrowing needs will be restricted, which increases their burden. Just depositing will increase income.

Once all banks in Hong Kong raise interest rates uniformly to attract short-term capital inflows from outside and reduce or eliminate the deficit, the bank deposits will increase.

but!

Raising interest rates will increase the investment costs of manufacturers. When the interest rate level rises, on the one hand, consumption will be reduced and savings will be increased, which will expand the supply of social funds, which may expand social output. On the other hand, it may inhibit investment and reduce social output.

Even if external funds return, most of them will enter the banks. The existing capital in Hong Kong is already so much. If there are more deposits in banks, less money will be invested in the capital market, and the trading volume of the stock market will fall. This is a bit disadvantageous for investment institutions such as Jiuding Securities.

If the stock market funds do not circulate well, and if you are not careful, the stock market will fall!

...

After Liu Tianci finished speaking, Wang Qi asked impatiently: "Mr. Liu, according to what you just said, HSBC is only proposing for the first time. Do you personally think that the interest rate hike proposal will be passed 100%?"

Liu Tianci pondered for a moment, then nodded heavily and said, "Mr. Wang, I can't guarantee 100%, but in my personal opinion, 99% will pass, and it will not take more than half a month. The key now is to be specific. The amount of interest rate hike."

Wang Qi's face sank, his brows furrowed, his fists clenched subconsciously.

Xia Yu glanced at Wang Qi and said faintly: "Wang Qi, don't worry, I think this will happen 100%, it can't be stopped, and there is no need to stop it."

It is no wonder that Xia Yu has this attitude, because he knows the real situation of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate. The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1972, but this peg is learned.

Currently, Hong Kong does not implement a linked exchange rate system, so although the Hong Kong dollar has always fluctuated with the U.S. dollar at 4.6 to one, it is not the fixed 7.8 to one of the later generations. Therefore, under this exchange rate system, the Hong Kong dollar’s Free exchange rate is freedom, but uncontrollable and risky are also greater.

And now, Hong Kong does not have a Monetary Authority, only the Exchange Fund Management Bureau and the Office of the Supervision of Banking. The Office of the Supervision of Banking is not even as powerful as the Hong Kong Banking Association, which was transformed from the Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Bank Association at the beginning of this year. The right to issue money is concentrated in the hands of HSBC and Standard Chartered. Although the Hong Kong government has the right to issue money, it is only 10%.

However, the Exchange Fund Administration is limited by the exchange rate system and is not particularly capable of controlling and intervening in foreign exchange.

Therefore, the Hong Kong Banking Association can do it on its own, just like the Federal Reserve, raising the bank exchange rate, which indirectly affects the exchange rate.

anyway.

Seeing that Wang Qi’s brows were still not fully stretched, Xia Yu continued: “Even if the Hong Kong Banking Association does not make adjustments, then the interest rate difference will always exist, funds will continue to flow out, and the funds flowing into the stock market will also decrease. At that time, not only investment institutions will be unlucky. , The bank is also unlucky."

"The two powers harm each other, whichever is less."

"A rate hike by the Association of Banks is better for the whole of Hong Kong than being indifferent."

"The key now is how to deal with the upcoming bear market."

Bear market! ! !

As soon as Xia Yu's voice fell, Wang Qi was agitated, looked at Xia Yu abruptly, and asked nervously: "Chairman, do you think the stock market has reached its peak now?"

Liu Tianci also fixed his eyes on Xia Yu, also nervous, his brain quickly analyzed why the chairman made such a judgment.

Will the consequences of an interest rate hike announced by the Association of Banks be so serious?

Xia Yu smiled slightly and did not answer Wang Qi's question, but instead asked, "Wang Qi, where is the Hang Seng Index now?"

Without hesitation, Wang Qi reported the constant index amount after the market opened this morning: "One thousand eight hundred thirty-seven!"

Xia Yu asked again: "Recall the situation of the previous few years, is the current HSI high or low?"

Wang Qining thought about it for a long time. When he thought of going further, he felt a bit dry in his mouth. He nodded and said: "It's already very high, even exceeding the peak of the stock market crash in 1973, creating a record high for Hong Kong stocks!"

"But the chairman, although the enthusiasm for stock trading is high now, investors are not as crazy as they were in 1973, and after so many years of development, the capacity of Heung Kong's capital market has far exceeded that before."

He was the one who experienced the terrible stock market crash in 1973, and he also knew the madness of the stock market at that time.

There have been some crazy phenomena in the market, such as "shark fin fishing for rice", stockholders resigning full-time stocks, "abalone porridge", "fish eggs made with mouse spots", and "lighting cigarettes with Daniel (HK$500 banknote.

There is also a joke among the people that there is also a stock exchange in the Qingshan Mental Hospital, which is specially designed for people who are nervous about stock speculation.

The Hong Kong government had to find excuses for all fire hazards in the transaction, and dispatched firefighting to forcefully expel investors in order to cool the stock market.

At that time, the Hang Seng Index reached 1,774.96 at its craziest, and then fell to a trough of 150.11 in nine months, with a drop of 91.5 percent.

Although today's Hang Seng Index surpassed the peak of the stock market crash in 1973 and created a record high for Hong Kong stocks, Wang Qi can be sure that although the market is hot, it is definitely not crazy!

Wang Qi didn't realize that it was not because he was unable to do so, but because there were many reasons for this bear market. Interest rate hike alone was not enough to cause the stock market to crash.

Xia Yu knows very well that this bear market can be regarded as a policy market. The interest rate hike has made the stock market fluctuate, but it is because of the future problems of Xiangjiang that the market panic and the stock market fall are important reasons.

Due to his reasons in this life, the changes have been great. For example, the current HSI has exceeded the peak of the stock market crash in the previous life.

However, Xia Yu, who has been watching the general trend, is not panicked. Although the memory of his previous life cannot be fully believed, he has a self-knowledge that some things can affect, but some things cannot be interfered by him, such as the future of Taiwan Province and Xiangjiang. .

He deeply affected Xiangjiang, but the mainland has been staring at Taiwan Province. Xiangjiang is an experimental field, which cannot be changed.

Xia Yu believes that the four-character policy for later generations must be brewing, and the time to live is not far away He must be able to get news in advance.

Moreover, his energy can also offset the negative influence, the key depends on whether he is willing to do it!

Before, he thought about actively stabilizing the situation in Xiangjiang, but after returning from staying in the United States for a while, he saw that the merger of the four stock exchanges had been slow to make progress. Looking at the Hong Kong stock market with loopholes and imperfect systems, he was not satisfied!

Xiangjiang is his lair, and he also wants to build Xiangjiang into an international financial capital, but now the Hong Kong stock market is full of loopholes, and a rotten bucket with holes everywhere has to go away even if it is full of sands!

The merger of the four institutes is to rebuild a new barrel, but the progress of building this new barrel is too slow, and things will go wrong!

Now that the Banking Association will raise interest rates soon, the stock market is destined to fluctuate. The key to falling or rising depends on whether he interferes or not, and how he wants the stock market to go.

Now his attitude is very obvious, he wants the Hong Kong stock market to become a bear!

It's just that some things didn't happen in it, and he couldn't provide evidence, so it was inconvenient to tell Wang Qi.

So he could only answer domineeringly: "Wang Qi, your analysis is correct, but I need the Xiangjiang stock market to become a bear market!"

Wang Qi suddenly looked at Xia Yu dumbfounded, not knowing what to say.

Liu Tianci frowned, trying to figure out what Xia Yu meant.

For a long time, Wang Qi asked eagerly: "Chairman, aren't you planning to go to war against the Taikoo Consortium?"

"Once both of us start to fight, the stock market trading volume will surge. The Hang Seng Index will go up. It should be able to offset the negative impact of the bank association's interest rate hike. How can this bear market start?"

PS: I opened a big pit without filling a hole, checked the information for a night, and learned a lot of things, one pit after another, and all of them were pulled into the water. I was excited when I thought of the following plot.

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