Chapter 1153： limit to be raised

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Twitter and Facebook are buzzing.

Posts scolding Netflix and Netflix's split packages have instantly become a hot topic on the Internet. It is estimated that giants such as Google and Amazon are also secretly doing it and are happy to watch jokes.

And after "a person familiar with the matter" released in the media that Starz had failed to negotiate with Netflix and that the relevant content would be taken off the shelves after a year, Netflix's stock price fell by nearly 8% a few hours later.

On the morning of September 6, Netflix's after-hours offer price fell again by 8.51%. Four days later, Netflix per share fell to $213.42, and the streaming media sector evaporated 80,000 to 900,000 loyal users (that is, member users) in just a few days. , more smugglers left, and the number of visits hit a new low for the month.

Of course, Netflix's DVD segment suffered more serious losses, and the decision was implemented, and soon one-sixth of the group's base was collapsed, and the downward trend was far more rapid than the former.

In this case, it is understandable.

How did Netflix get rid of traditional stores like Blockbuster?

First, there is a free trial period for new members when they sign up for the first time. They can choose their favorite movies from Netflix's authorized DVD library to form a personal list, and then Netflix will choose the package according to the member (the difference is that the DVD is rented at the same time. Quantity) and list order to mail out DVD discs, which greatly facilitates people's choice and does not have to run around and can't buy the corresponding content;

Second, members don't need to worry about the overdue date after receiving the DVD disc, they can watch as long as they want, as long as the member returns the rented DVD disc, Netflix will automatically send the movies on the list in order (Netflix has prepared a return for the user. DVD envelopes, members only need to pay the monthly fee, instead of paying the postage each time), and most members can receive the next film within a day or two after the company receives the returned film. This not only provides a lot of convenience for members and allows members to always have movies to watch, but also establishes the company's moat to some extent, preventing members from flowing to other DVD rental companies.

Third, Netflix's most powerful recommendation system has the same origin as streaming media; this kind of model case is often used as a typical analysis object for the long tail theory. Simply put, the long tail theory satisfies the tail end of people's demand curve , and the complementary design of the Netflix rental listing and the recommendation system is exactly that.

Many unpopular movies have entered the waiting list through the members' filling in the personal list and the system's recommendation. Considering the company's resource cost, the cost of popular movies is generally higher. In other words, each increase in the ratio of unpopular movies can naturally increase. Profitability of DVD rental services.

Then why can't it be done by someone else now?

First, the ceiling of this industry is not high. With the rise of streaming media, its market share will only shrink. Of course, this process is very slow;

Second, the general environment has changed. With technology giants like Apple entering the market, it is uncertain who is more powerful in data use. In addition, Netflix itself has no copyright advantage. Everyone is authorized. If you can give it to you, naturally Apple can also get it. , In the exploration based on Apple's ecological closed-loop, using Apple mobile phones, playing with Apple's tablet computers, and accustomed to Apple systems, can those users who are used to the Apple system still go to Netflix to rent discs?

In terms of brand influence alone, Apple is even better.

What's more, Amber knows that it is time to get down to the ground and grab some users. Is Apple watching?

No, they launched a series of discounts at the same time, taking advantage of the fact that Netflix was splitting its business and was chaotic and overwhelmed.

At the same time, Amber also enjoyed the bonus of Netflix's mistakes, and the number of visits increased suddenly.

"Usually it's good to have a few hundred independent IPs that we visit every day. These days, it's increasing by several thousand every day." Ron was a little excited, "If this goes on, our local paying users will be very fast. It can break through to 4 million.”

"..."

As if a gust of wind was blowing, with the smell of gunpowder in the wind.

Another day, Reed Hastings reluctantly maintained a calm apology to users at the press conference, his words were "sincere" and full of unwillingness. The founder is bitter. He took the initiative to seek to break the game, but was forced to do so. He was asked by reporters in a hurry, and he couldn't help but reply sharply.

He didn't think this move was wrong, he just blamed the lack of some necessary foreshadowing.

But there was no way. The stock price fell, investors were dissatisfied, and the complaints of those stock market analysts put a lot of pressure on him. After several consecutive meetings, the losses were more serious than they had expected before, the glorious Netflix emperor had no choice but to Letting go of his pride, he expressed his negligence and stopped calculating packages separately.

It's a pity that it hurt the hearts of those users, and it is still difficult to come back.

And after the apology statement, Lehmann was eating melons, and the president of Startz and a vice president of ABC jumped out to say that they had reached a strategic agreement for streaming media, saying that the network's episode resources no longer consider licensing. For platforms that use the paid model as the profit standard.

Like a bolt from the blue, Amber was also affected.

The situation has changed so much that people can't understand it. Blake came back to inquire immediately. After hearing it, Lehman was also a little stunned. He called HBO's executive and asked him to meet.

Street cafe.

The two sat opposite each other.

He casually exchanged some information about Shadow City, and waited until the waiter brought coffee and some small desserts before he started talking about business.

"Yes, they are negotiating something, and we HBO didn't respond much, but the existence of Netflix has violated the rights and interests of many TV networks, and you also know that the ratings of the three major wireless TV stations have generally decreased this year. In order to attract The investment of advertisers does care more about the retention of the audience, SO, we must also stand on their side.”

"What?" Lyman barely spit out the coffee.

Feelings you play for real. He always felt that as a premium channel, HBO couldn't urinate against other wireless stations. Otherwise, it would not have spent so much effort competing with established TV networks such as ABC and NBC in the filming of episodes. Under the pressure, both the wireless station and the pay station can sit together.

"No, those film and television resources of the TV station can't also create revenue if they are put into streaming media? Why do you need to share it so clearly."

"It's not that we can understand it, but everyone thinks that the content of the TV network can't in turn continue to fuel streaming media. Do you think those people have finally set up stars in equipment services, just to be replaced?"

The other party persuaded in turn: "These TV groups with assets worth tens of billions of dollars, they do not know how many people and how many programs are supported by advertisers, for the sake of a little authorization benefit - what's more, Netflix has no sincerity at all, continue. The appointment has collapsed.

Lyman, you can actually think about it. I know you all have the idea of ​​following the trend, the Internet is the future, etc. The TV station's customer base, especially the younger generation, is also willing to favor streaming media, so the users of the wireless station are losing every year, and the speed is still Soon, but is this change too fast? I still feel that sitting on the sofa, watching TV together as a family will be more warm, rather than lying on the bed with a mobile phone. Of course, the new way is not so bad, but hope... at least our generation has passed and it will change. "

The big truth is said in one set, but there is not much useful information.

The two parted at the coffee shop, and Lyman called CAA's Brian to see what he knew.

And CAA is worthy of being the brokerage company with the most clients, and it really knows the negotiation content of the so-called unified position.

Bryan said: "There is no need to worry too much. They are not only targeting streaming media, but they are discussing a better way to consolidate the audience and no longer negative growth."

"But the dramas that are being broadcast on TV, aren't the streaming media only put on the shelves for a few months at night There is no conflict with everyone."

"You know in your heart, the two are not the same at all.

Although content out-of-sync is also a means of protection, in fact, the survey also found that some users like to watch together. Even if there is no streaming media, and the TV station updates every week, they may not stay in front of the TV to watch on time. Instead, I will wait until the episodes are completely aired before looking for a chance to watch it. At this time, when there was no streaming media in the past, everyone bought or rented discs or waited for the TV station to make a special episode. Now that there is streaming media, they will naturally transfer to the past and become more loyal users of the business you carry out. . "

"After that, are all online video sites unable to get dramas from TV stations?"

"It's not so exaggerated, it's just that the restrictions will be stricter than now. As for the specific plan, I don't know for the time being. I'll call you when there is news."

"thanks……"

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