Chapter 283

"This week, the U.S. dollar rebounded against European currencies and commodity currencies. The euro against the US dollar, the pound against the US dollar and so on have launched technical adjustments from the recent relative high, with the range of about 3%. The US dollar did not rebound significantly.

Although the U.S. dollar is slightly stronger this week, it is expected to return to weak consolidation after a brief technical rebound

"I don't agree with that!"

With the meeting going on, people's discussion became more and more heated. The discussion on gold came to an end. The foreign exchange market became the focus of the meeting. After all, we all know that the boss is short selling Euro heavily. Everyone wants to make a performance in this investment and let himself stand out.

On this, Arthur is optimistic and encourages debate. He smiles at an analyst who just spoke and says, "Scott, tell me what you think."

"Yes, boss. Ladies and gentlemen, as you can see, the US economic data released today has generally performed well, which has undoubtedly raised investors' expectation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates earlier. On Friday, the US dollar rose sharply. The US dollar index once hit a one month high, while the euro fell below 1.4600 and hit a two-month low.

Retail sales rose 1.3% in November, compared with an expected 0.7%, while core retail sales rose by 1.2% and expected to rise by 0.4%, the Commerce Department of white headed eagle said on Friday.

U.S. consumer confidence rose in early December and reached its highest level since September, according to a report released on Friday. After the retail sales data, the US dollar has been in an upward trend. After the release of consumer confidence data, the US dollar's rise was close to "Crazy", while the euro fell below the 1.4600 level, the lowest to 1.4586, the lowest since the beginning of October. "

The analyst named Scott talked with all kinds of data at his fingertips to support his point of view. Arthur's boss and other people in the conference room listened attentively to his analysis.

"Strong retail sales data, followed by stronger than expected consumer confidence data, further supported the strength of the dollar. The market has been aggressively shorting the U.S. dollar for some time, but as the U.S. economic outlook improves, shorting the U.S. dollar is less attractive to investors.

Therefore, I think today's dollar rebound may be the beginning of further improvement in dollar sentiment. As long as there is more U.S. economic data to support the view that the recovery is further established, the dollar will rise further in the short term. "

Scott's analysis was in place and was recognized by many people present. One of the analysts opened his mouth and said: "I fully agree with Scott's analysis. Previously, strong US data will improve investors' risk preference, leading to the strength of high-yield currencies such as the European dollar and the Australian dollar. But better U.S. data at the moment can enhance investors' expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier, which can help the dollar rise.

Don't forget, the rise in Treasury yields also helped the dollar rebound, especially against the dollar. The outlook for the dollar is improving. "

Arthur nodded his head thoughtfully. He didn't incline to Xing. To be honest, he felt that these views of his subordinates were very reasonable, because everyone could come up with theories and data to support their views. In this case, he could not easily express his position.

So he turned his eyes to Angela, an investment and wealth management consultant who had been listening since the beginning of the meeting. He asked with a smile, "Angela, what's your opinion?"

With Arthur's question, the originally noisy conference room immediately became quiet, and everyone turned their attention to Angela, who has become the key figure of young boss's right hand.

Angela took the public's attention calmly and said with a calm smile: "boss, the recovery information of US data, such as the fall of unemployment rate, will indeed strengthen the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in advance. This is also the logic that leads to the rebound of the dollar at the stage of emergence.

But I think that this process is only technical, and it will not be very strong and will not last for a long time. It is normal for the market to experience emotional turmoil. After all, the market has been up for nine months since March.

I have doubts about the stabilization of the US economy. Because at the end of October, nine American banks failed in one day, setting a new record since the financial crisis. This undoubtedly exposed that the loose monetary environment failed to offset the liquidity pressure of the U.S. banking industry, and the problem of non-performing loans is still weakening the lending capacity of the banking industry.

Fundamental concerns will constrain the recovery of private demand. Household and financial sector deleveraging is not smooth. Although the household saving rate in the United States is rising, the debt ratio has not decreased. Now it seems that the so-called "consumer deleveraging" is a dead end of rebalancing, which can not lead the US economy to balance at all.

More importantly, the weak dollar will raise the operating costs of traditional industrial sectors as a whole. In other words, only by soaking traditional resources and energy in the "water", can we fundamentally ensure that a large number of investment will continue to enter the low-carbon economy and fully ensure the safety of these investments.

Only by "re industrialization" can we realize the growth of disposable income, and the emergence of new wealth can reduce the debt ratio of families and countries. This is strategy. Therefore, before the United States completes the new strategic layout, the global economy will be immersed in the "ocean" of flowing for a long time.Of course, the above logic must have a premise: weak dollar and inflation must be controllable. It depends on the ability of Americans and whether the expectation of market theory will really emerge. Now it seems possible.

It may be a long-term process. It is not too hard to believe that the bubble will burst in 2010, nor in 2011. Before the establishment of the new economic factors, the asset bubbles of global commodities and emerging markets will not really break down. Of course, there will be turbulence. Even the stage Xing is very intense, but in general, asset and commodity prices will become very expensive.

At the same time, the volatility of the stock will be very large, because it is not a general asset, to some extent, it is an emotional response to asset price volatility.

It depends on whether investors dare to capitalize on the improvement of short-term performance infinitely, which is the key to the upward movement of new valuations.

If the market recognizes that the improvement is staged and there is great uncertainty in the future, this growth will become meaningless.

Maybe the market is short-sighted and irrational. If we are willing to treat the uncertainty as certainty by fluke, there is no way. But this mode of making money belongs to zero sum, and it depends on who is the last to take the bang.

To sum up, my view is that the US dollar will continue to weaken, which is the strategy formulated by the white headed eagle. Even if there will be a rebound in the short term, it will not change the general situation. Gold will still be the main safe haven investment option. The assets will become more and more expensive. The European debt crisis will become more and more severe. The euro dollar will continue to depreciate. The bearish prospect of exchange rate will not change. The target is 1.4480 to 1.4450, even It is possible to rush to 1.4280. "

Angela's series of analysis and conclusion made the conference room appear a short silence, and then there were all kinds of comments. People in twos and threes got together to discuss Angela's views.

Arthur nodded to Angela and said, "wonderful analysis!"

It has to be said that these conclusions of Angela are basically similar to the development trend in his memory, which is very rare in Arthur's view. In the future, at least, he doesn't have to worry about Angela's abilities, he doesn't have to worry about what he believes.

This meeting about the strategy for the coming year lasted for more than three hours, and it was not over until it was near lunch time. This meeting also brought a lot of surprises to Arthur, especially when he looked at it with his memory, which made him full of confidence in his team.

The future is promising!

www.novelhold.com , the fastest update of the webnovel!