Chapter 413

"The economist who is more popular in Asian countries than Paul Krugman seems to be John Nesbitt?" Ye Jianbin said.

"Do you mean Nesbitt's Asian trends?" Zhang que asked Ye Jianbin, "is there a publishing house in China to translate his monograph? I only have an English version in my hand. His views are indeed very popular in Asia, and there should be a translated text in China."

"Well, the foreign language Publishing House published the Chinese version in July. My third uncle recommended me to read it," Ye Jianbin said with a smile. "After all, everyone is willing to listen to good words."

"It was originally recommended by the third uncle. It seems that John Nesbitt's view is really popular." Zhang Ke smiled and said, "Naisbitt optimistically estimates that the rising Asia will become the center of the future world and Asia will continue to prosper. I also like to hear that. However, Naisbitt ignores some disadvantages existing in the economic development model of Asia, especially East Asian countries. These disadvantages are still very serious, but we should pay attention to..."

Ye Zhenmin, the third uncle of Ye Jianbin and the third son of Ye Zufan, is a member of the Party group of the Ministry of foreign trade and economic cooperation. He is in charge of the Asia Department. Although he is not at the top of the nearly 20 vice ministerial levels of the Ministry of foreign trade and economic cooperation, the Asia Department is the real power department second only to the American department in the Ministry of foreign trade and economic cooperation. Due to the active economy of Asian countries in recent years, overseas Chinese in East Asian countries account for the largest share of domestic foreign investment A proportion, coupled with the intentional or unintentional suppression of the domestic economy by the United States, makes the position of the Asia division particularly important.

After listening to Zhang Ke's words, ye Jianbin became excited. Holding a wine glass, he leaned over: "did you have such a judgment that Jiaxin industry should temporarily slow down its business expansion in Southeast Asia?"

The earliest cooperation between Zhang Ke and Jiaxin industry was to put all the brand agency right and some cash of Aida DVD player in Southeast Asia into Jiaxin industry in exchange for the status of the second shareholder of Jiaxin industry. Although Zhang Ke put the agency right of Aida DVD player in Southeast Asia into Jiaxin industry, Zhang Ke persuaded sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others to temporarily slow down the large-scale expansion of DVD players in Southeast Asia Business is just to use the current resources to organize production and sales. The most important move is to join Ye's family to take a stake in Huishan xiangxuehai and make every effort to develop xiangxuehai's refrigerator business in China. Ye Xiaotong also asked Zhang Ke to enter xiangxuehai to be responsible for market operation.

"Oh, yes," Zhang Ke smiled. "You may miss some opportunities, but the most important rule of operation is to survive. Jiaxin industry was not in a good situation at that time and needed a more stable business strategy. Of course, it is the first to develop domestic business in such a large domestic market to be developed."

Now, among the four major shareholders of Jiaxin industry, Yuexiu (Hong Kong) ranks first, Shengxin group ranks fourth, and sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde, the second and third largest shareholders, are nominally owned by the Ge family, which is the nominally largest shareholder of Jiaxin industry.

Since the establishment of xiangxuehai Electric Appliance Group Co., Ltd. in early June, the growth rate of xiangxuehai's refrigerator business has rapidly rebounded to the highest level in 1994 and 1995. Due to the suspicion of abandoning business during more than a year of negotiation between xiangxuehai and South Korea's Samsung Group, it is necessary to recapture "Nanxiang Xuehai and North Haier" The white electricity market position of xiangxuehai Electric Appliance Group will not be possible until the new production line of xiangxuehai electric appliance group is put into operation. The refrigerator business of xiangxuehai began to recover in the third quarter. In the third quarter, the nominal net profit attributed to the holding company Jiaxin industry has reached 10 million. After deducting financial costs, Jiaxin industry finally had a good quarterly report in the third quarter to support the early stage The value judgment of investors on Jiaxin industry and the stock price of Jiaxin industry have been rising; these undoubtedly prove the correctness of Zhang Ke's judgment. Of course, it can be predicted in advance, otherwise Zhang Ke can't persuade sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde to adopt his suggestions.

"The economic environment in East Asia is much more complicated..." Zhang Ke continued, "Recently, the influx of international hot money into these regions has accelerated, and the previous disadvantages will be further exacerbated by catalysis. In addition, in recent years, the liquidity of international speculative capital has been increasingly relaxed. According to a data just released by the Institute, the scale of hot money with sufficient liquidity has reached US $1 trillion. No matter how reliable the data of the Institute are, the scale of international hot money is increasing The scale is not small. With such a sharp weapon, dare you say there is no fierce hunter behind it? "

Zhang Ke has only had time to study Paul Krugman's economic theory and the macroeconomic situation in East Asia since this year. His previous judgment naturally takes advantage of rebirth. Take the historical events and Paul Krugman's economic theory to confirm each other, and then fully collect the economic data of Asian countries for analysis. Zhang Ke naturally has more confidence in pointing out that Asia There are serious disadvantages in the economies of various countries, but his influence is really limited. In addition to Ye Jianbin, sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others, it is doubtful how many people will agree with his views.

Of course, some problems can be communicated with Xu Xueping, ye Zhenmin and others, but Zhang Ke has only recently studied some problems thoroughly. Before, he could not directly point out that there will be an extremely serious economic crisis in Asia next year.

"Well, what are you two big men doing together?"

Zhang Ke glanced back. Sun Jingmeng stood behind him with her arms crossed, close to her, and the tip of her nose almost rubbed her tall chest. Zhang Ke was not the kind of person who didn't take advantage of it, but he didn't dare to take advantage of it. He leaned against the bar, smelled the faint aroma from sun Jingmeng, and turned to see Tang Jing and them. Other work in the bar The staff have come one after another. Tang Jing, Chen feirong and Su Yiting can't get involved. They are sitting inside drinking and chatting.

Zhang Ke and ye Jianbin discussed the Asian economy and talked about speculation. They almost got their heads together. Zhang Ke also took out a fountain pen and brought napkins to write some key economic data and draw a picture for ye Jianbin.

"Many adults still like to scribble on napkins?" sun Jingmeng reached over and took a stack of napkins full of data and a linear graph with red strokes. He stared for a while and didn't understand, "what are they?"

"You don't understand," Ye Jianbin took the napkin from sun Jingmeng. "You won't be interested in these things." he spread the napkin on the bar, knocked on the bar with his fingers, and held his chin in one hand. Zhang Ke also turned and sat upright, ignoring sun Jingmeng.

"How do you know I'm not interested in these things?" sun Jingmeng puffed her cheeks and tied her son. During this time, she was also very serious in taking care of the bar. The contempt between Ye Jianbin and Zhang Ke made her feel bad.

"Come and see," Ye Jianbin moved aside and asked sun Jingmeng to sit between him and Zhang Ke. "Look, this thing is dizzy and affects your appetite... Ah, should we send the takeout we ordered?" he raised his hand to look at his watch and looked back at the porch of the bar.

Zhang Ke glanced at sun Jingmeng wearing a smoky gray short sleeved cashmere sweater. In addition to her white and tender arm exposed, she also exposed a large fine and smooth back muscle. She was lying on the bar looking at the data written on the napkin and some economic terms. Zhang Ke didn't dare to look more. Lying on the bar, he inevitably saw a corner of sun Jingmeng's chest exposed, He had to sit up straight and talk to Ye Jianbin over sun Jingmeng's head.

"If you want to see it, I don't mind, and I won't say anything to your little girlfriend." sun Jingmeng glanced at Zhang Ke and said so. He still pulled his clothes and covered the white meat exposed between his back and buttocks.

Sun Jingmeng's glance was still quite provocative. Zhang Ke scratched his nose and dared not provoke the witch. He went to the other side of Ye Jianbin and sat down.

Ye Jianbin smiled. Last year, Zhang Ke and Xu Si were guests at the sun's house. They spent a lot of time in contact with sun Jingmeng. Sun Jingmeng was more or less suspicious. It was just that the people involved knew something. If they were accidentally pierced by others, it would be called old life. No wonder Zhang Ke didn't even say a word of irony at this time. Maybe he wished sun Jingmeng ignored his existence. Ye Jianbin also turned aside to ignore sun Jingmeng and said to Zhang Ke, "when will you go to Beijing, or will I invite my third uncle to come here to chat with you?"

Talking, naturally, is about the macroeconomic situation in Asia.

For the economic situation in Asia, especially in East Asia, the mainstream view has always been quite optimistic. Paul Krugman's view is non mainstream and is not valued by the mainstream groups. Zhang Ke's remarks provide more detailed arguments based on Paul Krugman's economic theory, which is naturally more persuasive.

Take the old man's words, "in the past 20 years of reform and opening up, I have never met anyone who can understand an industry better than this young man". Zhang Ke's opinion, let alone Ye Jianbin, the rest of the Ye family attach great importance to it. Shengxin's transformation to focus on home appliance chain is also a decision after carefully investigating the market after listening to Zhang Ke's opinions. It has only been more than a year. It seems that this move is the most successful move of Ye family in business in recent years. Taking advantage of the influence of Ye Zhenmin and other Ye family members in Shanghai and Zhejiang, Shengxin Global Electric has completed the layout of home appliance chain industry in Shanghai and Zhejiang, and its assets alone have rapidly expanded to as much as 500 million; Ericsson's mobile phone agency business in East China continues to provide considerable funds for the development of Shengxin, but it is not the most important business of Ye family. Due to the rapid development of Shengxin global electric appliance group, ye Jianbin's position in the Ye family has risen rapidly and has become the representative of the Ye family in the business world. In the past, the scattered industries of the Ye family have been integrated into Shengxin's name. Shengxin has begun to take shape as a large group from a trading company two years ago.

Although Zhang Ke clearly pointed out that the impact of the Asian financial crisis on China is that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, mainly the financial industry policy implemented by the State Council in previous years, which has largely resolved some disadvantages of the domestic economy. It is also the golden decade of economic development in China after the Asian financial crisis, but he has a more accurate judgment on the Asian economic situation, It will undoubtedly benefit the domestic economy more

Ye Zhenmin is in charge of the Asia Department in the foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Department and directly handles economic and trade affairs with Asian countries. He is one of the important figures in formulating economic and trade policies for Asian countries. Although it is not a big deal to misestimate the economic situation in Asia with the crowd, it will definitely be a brilliant stroke in the political career if we can accurately predict the economic situation in Asia and benefit China from economic and trade activities with East Asian countries.

Ye Jianbin wants Zhang Ke to talk to his third Uncle Ye Zhenmin.

"Just tell me?" Zhang Ke said. "I have nothing to do these two days. If you want to be free, I'll talk to you more."

"I'll tell you. I may not be able to explain the problem thoroughly, but I'd better ask my third uncle to come back." Ye Jianbin can accept Zhang Ke's judgment. As for whether his third Uncle Ye Zhenmin can accept it, I don't know. I also asked them to talk face-to-face to explain the problem. I remembered another thing. "Liu Zhijun invited you to meet. Will you talk about this?"

"If they want to listen, of course I will," said Zhang Ke. "After all, Tao Jin has to nod his head for several major projects in the province."

"The project of East China Sea United Steel and East Japan Railway?" Ye Jianbin asked.

In order to make Xiaogang County in the southeast of Jianye city an important iron and steel production base in the East, the province launched the East China Sea joint iron and steel project last year. The equipment and technology required for the project are planned to be introduced from Japan, and finally choose the East Japan Railway Group under Mitsui Consortium for cooperation and negotiation.

In early April, angry at the arrogance and rudeness of little Japan, Zhang Ke, ye Jianbin, Li Yijiang and others cooked up the Fuchun Pavilion spring buying incident, which exposed the Japanese negotiators' practice of buying spring and humiliating China in Fuchun Pavilion Hotel to the public.

The incident triggered an anti Japanese and anti Korean Trend of thought in the province, which also suspended the project negotiation for a time. The province also expressed that it did not matter to suspend the negotiation. The East Japan Railway knew it was wrong and recalled all the members of the negotiation team involved in the Fuchun Pavilion spring purchase incident, and sent others to restart the negotiation.

Zhang Ke nodded and said, "yes, but it's more than that."

"Oh?"

"I personally agree with Paul Krugman's understanding of the Asian economic situation," Zhang Ke said faintly, "Although Nesbitt's view that Asia will continue to prosper is more popular at this time, the prevalence of Nesbitt's view can be said to be one of the catalysts for the influx of a large number of hot money into East Asian countries in recent years. A large number of speculative hot money and the economic defects of East Asian countries have a great possibility to induce the outbreak of economic crisis in these regions. Do you think those international financial investment giants have Did you smell blood? "

"Hmm!" from the detailed data collected by Zhang Ke, ye Jianbin also tends to think that there is a great possibility of local economic crisis in East Asia.

"Asian economic turmoil will start from Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, Indonesia and other countries. The economic disadvantages are particularly serious and the ability to prevent crisis is poor. In the past two decades, Southeast Asia is Japan's largest capital exporter. Japan will be affected by the economic instability in Southeast Asia, which will first be reflected in the exchange rate. The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar will fall and the RMB exchange rate will decline Relatively strong, if the funds required for the introduction of equipment and technology for iron and steel projects can obtain Japanese yen loans in Japan, they can at least make a profit on the exchange rate. "

At this moment, the takeout came to the store. We had to finish dinner and start business at night. Zhang Ke and ye Jianbin stopped discussing these issues and asked Tang Jing to come and prepare together. Sun Jingmeng took the napkin Zhang Ke had just written down a string of economic data. After reading it for a long time, she couldn't see a reason. She threw the napkin to Ye Jianbin angrily and saw Ye Jianbin as a treasure She put away these napkins, and the black and white eyes turned a few times. The momentum was taken away, but she couldn't say anything sharp. She didn't understand why Zhang Ke was still in high school?

After dinner, they cleaned up, and the bar officially began the day's business. Tang Jing, Chen feirong and Su Yiting went in and out of the bar for the first time and were very excited to see the flow of people coming in; Zhang Ke and ye Jianbin found a corner to continue their unfinished topic before dinner.

When it comes to the East China Sea joint iron and steel project, it is the largest investment project in the history of East China Sea Province, involving an amount of up to 10 billion, of which nearly 70% or 80% of the funds are used for equipment and technology caused by the East Japan Railway. The source of funds is a very important negotiation project.

If we can get all Japanese yen loans from Japan, introduce equipment and technology, and postpone the loan repayment period to after 1998, after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar fell sharply, while the RMB exchange rate was strong, this part alone can actually repay more than 30% of the loans.

Japan is one of the first countries to provide government loans to China. In the 30 years from 79 to 2008, the Japanese government has successively provided assistance loans to China with a total amount of about 2.9 trillion yen, accounting for 60% of the domestic official assistance loans received from foreign countries. The Japanese government's assistance loans to China have profound historical and political factors (China gives up its demand for war reparations to Japan, and Japan needs to improve China Japan Relations), but the main economic reason is that Japanese enterprises obtain a large number of contracts in loans to China, so as to enter the Chinese market on a large scale and drive the development of Japan's economy.

The cooperation between Donghai United Steel Group and East Japan Railway can obtain low interest loans from Japan through official negotiations.

In addition, although China has withstood the attack of the Asian financial storm, the economy in 1998 and 1999 was still affected to a certain extent. The State Council put forward appropriate measures according to the situation at that time to resolve the pressure of economic slowdown. However, vigorously developing industries such as real estate and education to stimulate domestic demand also left many problems for people's livelihood in the future.

Zhang Ke had some exchanges with Xu Xueping on these issues before. If Tao Jin, Secretary of the provincial Party committee, could also accept Paul Krugman's judgment on the Asian economic situation, Donghai province could make some preparations before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis and increase investment in infrastructure construction - 40% of the Japanese government's aid loans to China should be used for infrastructure construction - - strengthen negotiations with the Japanese government and try to increase the amount of Japanese aid loans to China this year and next for the construction of Provincial Expressway Network, railway network, Xiaojiang embankment and other infrastructure.

All these benefits have naturally emerged one by one after the Asian financial crisis.

However, the Japanese government's aid loans to China are of great political significance. In the 1980s, they are usually an important chip used by the Japanese Prime Minister to improve China Japan relations during his visit to China. Since the 1990s, in order to meet the needs of Japanese enterprises to enter the Chinese market on a large scale, the conditions of relevant loans have been gradually relaxed, but without the support of Tao Jin, Secretary of the provincial Party committee and even the Central Committee, a series of loans have been issued Xu Xueping's plan, especially to strive for yen loans and increase investment in infrastructure in the province, is also difficult to promote success.

Even if it is impossible to obtain low interest aid loans and commercial loans from Japan, as long as the project is negotiated before the Japanese economy is affected in 1998, it can directly benefit from the Asian financial turmoil.

Of course, Zhang Ke is not without his own balance of interests.

Xiangxuehai will introduce new production lines and technologies this year and next, and Xinguang paper will also greatly expand its paper production capacity this year and next. The project finance on both sides will add up to nearly 1 billion. Zhang Ke tends to cooperate with Japanese and South Korean enterprises. Japanese and South Korean enterprises are trustworthy in terms of technology and machinery manufacturing water in these two aspects. However, relying only on the folk influence of xiangxuehai and Xinguang paper, it is very unlikely to obtain commercial loans from Japan (even less likely to obtain aid yen loans). Zhang Ke wants to take a free ride in the province for the projects of xiangxuehai and Xinguang paper, Become a sub project of the provincial package project. Nearly half of xiangxuehai's shares are state-owned. Xinguang paper has large-scale forest planting in the middle and upper reaches of Xiaojiang River and plans to build a large pulp production base. Of course, it is reasonable to enjoy some convenience.

These are just a part of Zhang Ke's whole plan.

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