Chapter 108

While "Lola Run" and "Butterfly Effect" are still hot, Disney announced the news the next day that it will launch a distribution cooperation with Denise pictures on "when Harry meets Sally".

Denise pictures.

Although he was dissatisfied with Simon's promise of Disney's $6 million guaranteed Commission, Dennis O'Brien, the head of the handicraft film industry, could only complain because of the agreement that the project distribution in the original contract was completely dominated by danielis pictures.

After several days of negotiation, on May 5, Denise pictures officially signed the release contract of when Harry meets Sally with Disney Company.

With the release of when Harry meets Sally finalized, Denise pictures only needs to concentrate on the production of three films, and Simon has begun to turn part of his energy to another project.

May 6, Wednesday.

In the apartment of century building, Simon didn't go out this morning.

For the sake of confidentiality, two managers of Lehman Brothers personally went to the door to handle the futures account opening procedures for him.

Towards 11 o'clock, Jeff Robertson, senior vice president of Lehman Brothers, went through all kinds of formalities again and carefully put some documents into his briefcase. Then he got up and said to Simon, "Mr. westrow, you can contact Noah directly for the next thing. Of course, if you need any help, you can also call me at any time. "

Simon shook hands with Jeff Robertson politely and sent him out of the door. Then he looked at the 30-year-old white man left beside him. The man is the same size as Simon, with brown hair, clean face and meticulous white shirt and black trousers.

This is Noah Scott, a classmate Janet introduced to Simon, who is currently working as the vice president of the Chicago branch of Lehman Brothers, mainly in charge of futures brokerage business.

In order to sign Simon, Noah Scott came from Chicago.

They sat down on the sofa in the living room again. Simon looked at the young man opposite and said tentatively, "Noah, if I guess correctly, you and Jane are not in the same class, are you?"

Noah Scott shook his head, looked at Simon, and said, "I'm sorry, Simon, I'm still in the same class as Jennie."

Simon raised his eyebrows slightly and said, "well, you should be better than I thought."

Noah Scott might be 27 this year if he was in the same class as Janet. At the age of 27, he became Vice President of Lehman Brothers, which was somewhat unexpected.

The position system of investment banks is different from that of other companies.

At the beginning of the development of investment banks, in order to maintain the equal status with the senior executives in the business negotiation process, investment banks successively named their employees as managing director, executive general manager, senior vice president, vice president, assistant vice president and so on. All these titles were retained later.

So on Wall Street, a slightly larger investment bank usually has hundreds of vice presidents.

However, this does not mean how easy it will be to become a vice president of an old investment bank such as Lehman Brothers. It is basically impossible for an excellent business school graduate to join an investment bank, from the bottom analyst to the assistant vice president to the vice president.

In the face of Simon's surprise, Noah Scott was very calm and said: "in fact, Simon, my father is a senior member of the express company. Of course, I also have enough confidence to be competent for the current position. Your funds are very safe with me. So, what are you going to do next? "

Simon vaguely remembers that a few years ago, it seemed that express had acquired Lehman Brothers. His memory is not very detailed. However, Simon also knows that although elites are everywhere in large investment banks, they are also full of all kinds of relationship customers.

Simon didn't have to worry about that because he trusted Janet.

However, hearing the other side's question, Simon doesn't intend to tell Noah Scott his plan. They can't reach that level of trust. There are too many things Wall Street has done to blackmail its clients.

"Noah, 75 million dollars will go into the account of Westeros this afternoon. Back in Chicago, all you need to do is buy 1000 September long contracts for S & P 500 futures in the last two days of the week. "

Noah Scott nodded slightly and asked, "and then what?"

Simon said succinctly, "wait. Wait for my next order. "

Noah Scott thought about it, and then tried again, "Simon, do you want to be a long-term player?"

"Maybe," Simon replied noncommittally, looking at the young man opposite, and said, "Noah, you have to understand that I don't need investment consultation. My request is very simple, I said, "you do it."

Noah Scott felt Simon's sharp eyes for a moment. After a moment, he shrugged, changed a little posture on the sofa and said, "of course, Simon, the client is God. But you don't seem to trust me very much

Simon asked, "if we swap places, would you trust me the first time you met?""If I was 19 years old, I might believe it," Noah Scott said with a little quip, but then added, "in that case, Simon, maybe we don't have much to talk about in business. So, how did you catch up with Jennie? Many of us tried to pursue her in those years, but all failed. "

Simon didn't want to talk too much about himself and Janet's privacy. He just shook his head, got up and said, "I'm sorry, Noah. I can't treat you to lunch today. Maybe I'll have a chance later."

Noah Scott didn't bother. He got up to shake hands with Simon and said, "I'm looking forward to seeing you next time, and our trust will increase."

Send Noah Scott away, Simon from the living room coffee table to find a S & P 500 index recent trend chart, came to the study.

Standing in front of the wide white tablet beside the study wall, Simon raised his hand to the S & P 500 index trend chart as of yesterday, and compared with another S & P 500 trend curve drawn by memory on the tablet.

In order to avoid memory interference, before today, Simon has not paid attention to the recent stock index curve. But at this time, the S & P 500 curve in his hand before May 6, 1987 basically coincides with another curve on the tablet before the relevant time node.

Well, memory is clearly not wrong.

Simon is also basically relieved. Although he has his own butterfly, he does not think that the S & P 500 index futures market with a daily turnover of more than $1 billion will be seriously disturbed.

According to the data accumulated during this period, Simon found that 1987 was a "wild age" of stock index futures trading. This era is full of opportunities, but also there are countless pitfalls, it can make people rich overnight, but also enough to make people instant ruin.

Unlike commodity futures, which have been developed for more than a century, the first stock index futures in the world was born in the United States in 1982, that is, five years ago.

1982 is just the beginning of a new round of stock bull market in the United States.

Since 1982, the most important measure of the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones index, has risen all the way from 800 to 2300 recently. Simon also knows that in the next few months, the Dow Jones index will peak at more than 2700.

The vigorous development of the stock market easily covers up all kinds of malpractices existing in the stock index futures trading.

People who know a little about futures probably know that stock index futures have daily price limit rules, circuit breaker mechanism, no liability settlement, position limit and other trading rules to protect the market.

However.

Now, 1987, none of this.

Dow Jones index futures has not yet been launched. Take the standard & Poor's 500 index futures, which is the mainstream in the current market, for example, the trading process of stock index futures is actually very simple.

The recent S & P 500 index is around 270 points, and Simon remembers that the S & P 500 index peaked above 330 points at the end of August.

So.

According to the integer of 300 points of the S & P 500 index, for example:

every stock index futures has a "contract multiplier". The later "contract multiplier" of the S & P 500 index futures is $250, but now it is $500.

Therefore, the actual value of each S & P 500 futures contract is "index points" multiplied by "contract multiplier", which is US $150000. However, futures speculators only need to pay 10% margin to buy a contract, which is $15000.

Next, every rise or fall in the S & P 500 index means a profit or loss of $500 for a contract.

It seems that $500 is not much, but if multiplied by 10000 contracts, the profit and loss represented by every change in the index will expand to $5 million.

Based on the $15000 guarantee for each contract, the $150 million guarantee is required for 10000 contracts. As a result, compared with the huge margin of $150 million, the profit and loss of $5 million is still nothing.

From 1982 to now, the stock market of North America has been showing a very stable rising state, with few sharp fluctuations. Because of this relatively flat market situation, the "lowest change price" of the S & P 500 index contract is actually 0.1.

Because it has not experienced great changes, the federal regulatory authorities have not made various restrictions on the stock index futures market in the past five years.

There are no price limit rules, no circuit breaker mechanism, no daily debt settlement, no position limit

So.

When the great crash happened on October 19, 1987, disaster came.

In Simon's memory, on October 19, the standard & Poor's 500 index jumped directly below 200 from 281 on Friday.

80 points.

What does that mean.

It's still based on 10000 contracts.

If someone mistakenly establishes 10000 long contracts with 281 points on October 16, the total margin will be about $140 million. On October 19, his loss on each contract will be $500 times 80 points, or $40000.With 10000 long contracts, each contract will lose $40000, and the overall loss will reach $400 million. Compared with the $140 million margin, the loss ratio is close to 300%.

Actually.

In the 1987 stock market crash, there was such an unfortunate guy who mistakenly bet on a huge amount of long contracts. The name of the man was George Soros, and later the financial tycoon suffered a huge loss of $800 million.

As a result, the quantum fund, whose net asset value just exceeded $3 billion, shrank by more than a quarter in just a few days.

Now.

In the apartment of century building.

Simon looked at the S & P 500 index, which had been rising all the way up to the end of August on his study tablet. His fingertips were slightly numb at the plans to be implemented in the next few months.

In the curve in front of you.

270 in early May to 330 at the end of August. The overall rise of 60 points, the volatility is no less than a stock disaster. With a 60 point increase, each long contract can make a profit of $30000. The profit margin is enough to exceed 200%.

September was a turbulent month.

Avoid.

October 19.

281 points to 200 points, 80 points down, the real stock disaster.

Soros has a famous reflexivity theory. In short, there are unpredictable interactions between market participants and the market all the time.

Simon naturally thought that his "Butterfly" would change the original market trend.

However.

With all the chips that can be expected, he now has only more than $100 million.

If you lose, you lose.

It's all over again.

But.

If you win.

Simon will climb too many steps at a time in his journey to the top of the pyramid.